Development of Kela’s Decision-Making System for Evaluating Incapacity for Work
The denial rate of disability pension applications submitted to Kela has doubled to approximately 60% in the past 20 years. Applying for disability pension is usually the next step that follows after the customer has already received sickness allowance and/or rehabilitation. It is partly unclear why the denial rate of disability pension applications has increased. The applicants’ age structure and working life integration as well as the range of medical conditions affecting the applicants have undergone changes. In previous studies conducted by the Finnish Centre for Pensions, structural factors have provided little explanation for the observed changes. As such, further data is needed on the underlying factors.
Research questions
- What changes have occurred in the rehabilitation measures and sickness allowance periods that precede applying for a disability pension and in the range of medical conditions observed among the applicants? What kind of impact do these factors and the year of application have on the outcome of the application process?
- How have the assessments issued by Kela’s Medical Advisors changed in the past 10 years?
- How have the medical statements submitted during the application process changed?
Data: Data available in Kela’s registers (pensions, sickness allowance, unemployment, disability pension application data retrieved from the Oiwa system, applications submitted in 2015 and 2025 selected for the sample) and data on vocational rehabilitation available in the Finnish Centre for Pensions’ register.
Methods: Statistical multivariate analysis and qualitative content analysis.
Impact: Data on the development trends observed in the assessment of work capacity and the factors that impact it are expected to assist in the development of how work incapacity is assessed.
Researchers
- Tero Kujanpää, Leading Researcher
- Marjo Parkkila-Harju
- Riitta Luoto
- Janne Leinonen
- Riitta Seppänen-Järvelä
- Jenni Blomgren
Project Implementation Period
1.1.2026–31.12.2027
