Development of impact assessments of social security and health insurance 

The project is based on the need to reform the SISU microsimulation model of Statistics Finland and to develop methods for evaluating the impact of social security and daily allowances granted from the national health insurance scheme in order to better meet current information needs. The microsimulation methods used have limitations, especially with regard to the evaluation of benefit transitions and the precision of forecasts on social security expenditures.

The SISU model will be reformed in order to ensure its future use. The second part of the project examines how modern statistical and causal methodologies can improve the impact assessment of policy changes related to social security. The study draws on register data representing the Finnish population in the SISU model. The methods to be developed will be tested using Kela's register data. A functional causal model is examined methodologically that allows for a more systematic and transparent evaluation of the effects of changes in social security and health insurance. The project will result in a revised microsimulation model, new tools for impact assessment and research publications. The results strengthen the reliability of the impact assessment of social security and support the ability of ministries, research institutes and other expert organisations to produce better forecasts and evaluations of the consequences of policy changes.

Researchers

• Signe Jauhiainen, Principal Investigator
• Tuija Korpela
• Lauri Mäkinen
• Tapio Räsänen
• Miska Simanainen

Duration of the project

1.8.2026–31.12.2028